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Details:
This bar chart compares contract release clauses (in red lines) against projected market values (in blue bars) for four players: A, B, C, and D.
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BUY recommendations are shown when a player's projected market value significantly exceeds their current release clause (e.g., Player A and Player C), indicating a valuable opportunity.
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DO NOT BUY appears when the clause is higher than or close to the market projection (e.g., Player B and Player D), meaning the investment isn’t justified.
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The chart clearly visualizes undervaluation gaps, helping identify players whose current contract terms offer a potential bargain.
The problem
The Old Way
CLAUSES OFTEN OUTDATED OR BASED ON INSTINCT
HIGH RISK OF LOSING KEY PLAYERS
MANUAL TRACKING OF RENEWALS AND CONTRACTS
NO BENCHMARKS FOR CLAUSE COMPETITIVENESS
NO PREDICTIVE INSIGHT ON TRANSFER RISKS
The New Way
REAL-TIME CLAUSE VS MARKET VALUE MONITORING
PROACTIVE ALERTS FOR UNDERVALUED CONTRACTS
AUTOMATED CONTINUOUS CLAUSE SURVEILLANCE
BENCHMARKS BY POSITION AGE LEAGUE AND GROWTH
FORECAST-BASED DETECTION OF UNDERVALUATION
Technical Description
Data Preparation
Collect key player contract and market data:
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Cactual: Current release clause.
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MVt(p): Current market value.
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xMVt+T(p): Projected market value in T years (e.g., 2 years).
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Player attributes: age, position, contract length, performance trend (ELO, xG).
Normalize market values and contract data for consistent comparisons.
Compute Undervaluation Metrics
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Calculate Undervaluation Ratio (Ri)
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Compute Absolute Value Gap (Δabs)
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Determine Risk of Activation (Prisk) based on how attractive the clause is to other clubs.
Flag Free Money Opportunities
Identify players where
Ri < 0.8 → Clause is significantly undervalued.
Compute Priority Score considering:
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Growth rate (Gi) from performance trajectory.
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Contract proximity (shorter contracts increase urgency).
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Risk factors (injury history, volatility).
Generate Outputs & Recommendations
Produce a ranked list of opportunities including:
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Player name, current vs. projected market value.
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Undervaluation ratio (Ri), Δabs, and risk index.
Highlight strategic actions:
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Buy now (high upside, low clause).
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Negotiate renewal (protect club asset).
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Monitor (medium-term opportunities).
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This line graph shows a player’s projected market value (orange line) across four seasons, compared against a fixed release clause (red dashed line) and their current market value (green X).
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At the start, the player is undervalued and below the clause, suggesting to avoid.
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As their projected value surpasses the clause (from season 2 onward), the recommendation shifts to BUY, signaling a high-return opportunity.
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The chart visually highlights the timing advantage—buying before value growth maximizes ROI based on predictive modeling.
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This chart maps optimal buy/sell timing by comparing a player’s projected market value (blue line) to an escalating release clause (red dashed line) over five years.
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The green shaded area (Buy Zone) indicates periods when the player's projected value exceeds the clause—offering high return potential.
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The red shaded area (Avoid Zone) shows when the clause is too high relative to market projections.
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The stepwise clause escalation reflects real-world contractual clauses that increase over time, underscoring the urgency of early detection for maximizing ROI.
"From now on, if you leave money on the table, don’t worry—WINNING already took it home."
Other Objetives
Smart Acquisition Strategy
Leverage clause vs. projected market value gaps to maximize ROI.
Efficient
Data-driven
Proactive Contract Management
Spot undervalued clauses early to prioritize renewals and avoid losing key players cheaply.
Predictive
Preventative
Automated Risk Monitoring
Continuously monitor clauses and market values, minimizing manual checks and preventing market leaks.
Continuous
Scalable
Value
Optimization
Align clause values with expected player growth to secure long-term market advantages.
Strategic
Protective